On 14 November 2024, researchers and practitioners met for a workshop in Stockholm to discuss crisis detection and early intervention in High-Reliability Organisations in Sweden. The workshop explored best practices for identifying and responding to emerging threats and was cohosted by the Swedish Defence University, the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, and Leiden University.

The research group held another conference, this time in Leiden, on 27 November 2024. The goal of the conference was to stimulate research on crisis detection. In many sectors and organisations, there is a desire to learn how to detect and understand potential crises in an early stage, so that appropriate actions can be taken. Additionally, the group sought to give the Dutch crisis community a boost by bringing together relevant crisis researchers and practitioners. Fellow researchers will be able to present their work, and we ask practitioners to share how they try to anticipate crises within their organisations.

The Societal Security research project is proud to announce a new project called “Unravelling the Secrets of Crisis Detection and Decisive Action” (2024-2027). Selected by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) after a competitive, two-stage selection process featuring many applicants, the project will bring scientific insights to bear on understanding the perennial challenge of spotting new threats–and mobilizing political action.

More information on the project can be found here.

On 28 November 2023 from 9:00-12:00 we gathered to uncover ‘best practice’ in detecting creeping crises and intervening to mitigate their effects. The challenge of detecting and intervening to manage creeping crises plagues modern governance. This workshop brought together practitioners and academics to discuss the case of climate as a creeping crisis. It asked what we’ve learned from recent experience, to help identify the secondary effects of climate change and how to mitigate local impact. Experts from all Swedish governance levels explored what has led to effective climate change adaptation — and where more work is needed.

The event was held at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, in hybrid format. Find a video of the event below.

Professor Magnus Ekengren from the Swedish Defence University produced this video on the consequences of creeping crises (in Swedish).

At a recent virtual seminar of the Swedish Royal Academy of War Sciences, research group member Professor Magnus Ekengren spoke of the phenomenon of ‘Creeping Crises’. Magnus spoke of the key characteristics of creeping crises and assessed whether Covid-19 fulfills the definition.

Note: Video in Swedish.

Click here for more info: https://tv.streamfabriken.com/2021-04-21-akademien-online/preview/UkjEQcZ7lZ?seek=33

Mark Rhinard’s lecture at Stockholm University’s third Sustainability forum on the topic “From crisis to sustainability” on 22 April 2021.

Societies once treated ‘crises’ as unpredictable events requiring urgent responses under conditions of uncertainty. Crises would come and go: discrete events that represent interruptions to normal life. Today’s crises seem different. Issues like climate change, spreading pandemics and economic turbulence appear as permanent fixtures of our lives. We know about them. We live with them. And yet, with only some exceptions, the sense of urgency is not there. Governments do not act in time or do not act at all.

What explains how modern societies manage these ‘creeping’ crises? What kind of capacities are required to do so? What might prompt governments to act before it’s too late – either in terms of damage or their own lost legitimacy?

Listen to the lecture to hear more about these questions!

The article ‘The Crisisification of Policy‐making in the European Union’ has won the Best Article in 2019 prize from the Journal of Common Market Studies a top-ranked journal in the field of International Relations. The article, written by Mark Rhinard, Professor of International Relations, is available Open Access at https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12838.

The jury said of the article: ‘This thought provoking article is timely, wide-ranging and compellingly argued. It is of clear significance to a very broad area of scholarship. It provides a careful and rigorous analysis. This is an important and impressive article. The jury loved this article, which “talks” to us intimately and resonate with the environment in which we are finding ourselves.’

The adverse effects of climate change can drastically change living conditions in many parts of the world. In a new report from Fores and European Liberal Forum (ELF), researcher Elin Jakobsson provides the reader with the key features of climate-driven migration as a phenomenon, and the policy processes which surround it, and proposes a set of recommendations specifically aimed at policy makers in the EU to address migration and displacement caused by climate change.

In sum, the report sends the following message to EU policy makers:

1. More efforts needs to be put into streamlining definitions in order to create a unified terminology and a common language on climate-driven migration. There have been conceptual advancements in the past few years but confusion and discrepancies related to the scope and definitions regarding climate-driven migration still persist.
2. The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) gives more attention to climate-driven migration than has been given to previous agreements in the UN system. However, the suggested measures are not overly specified and it will be very much up to states to take these forward. With this in mind, the EU should make use of and safeguard the GCM as a forum for negotiations and discussions. In doing so, EU institutions and representatives should:
   • Strive to advance and promote issues related to climate-driven migration in the GCM context.
   • Encourage all member states to sign the compact.
3. A large group of climate-driven migrants are not sufficiently covered by existing protection mechanisms. EU protection for climate-driven migrants should therefore be strengthened. Such strengthening measures could include:
   • To recognize natural disasters as a cause of forced displacement – and  thus a provision to attain protection status within the frames of the new EU Qualification Regulation.
   • To consider the possibilities of international protection even where there might be a theoretical option of internal flight in order to relieve pressure on local resources and ecosystems (especially as such pressure has proven to be a breeding ground for conflict).
   • To assist people and states in need with finding safe spots after sudden-onset disasters. This can be done through humanitarian assistance, temporary permits or humanitarian visas.
   • To assist international humanitarian organizations and exposed states with resettlement-like solutions for displaced people, where appropriate. This should also be considered for cases of slow-onset disasters (eg. droughts and sea-level rise), where relocation is needed as a way of supporting vulnerable communities who have fewer chances of maintaining their livelihoods as a result of environmental degradation.

Read more and download the report here.

The Societal Security Research Group will host a series of panels at the fifth PUPOL (Public and Political Leadership) International Conference taking place in The Hague, the Netherlands, on the 16th and 17th of April 2020.

The Leiden Leadership Centre of Leiden University, including Professor Arjen Boin, will act as a host for this conference. Please contact pupol2020@leidenuniv.nl if you have any questions or remarks.

For more information, click here.